Is ‘Fringe’ Facing Cancelation?

Posted Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011 09:00 pm GMT -4 by 0

Here we go again. With series-low ratings, ‘Fringe’ is in danger of being cancelled. This discussion is not new for fans of FOX’s sci-fi series, but with numbers this low, this time the threat is real.

As reported by TVLine, during its first season, ‘Fringe’ aired on Tuesdays and had an average of 10 million viewers, but FOX moved the show to Thursdays and moved it again at the beginning of its third season to Fridays. Season 4 opened with 3.5 million viewers and a 1.5 rating, and the numbers have fallen as this season has progressed. The midseason finale had a 1.1 rating and a 3 share (TVbythenumbers.com). The midseason finale finished fourth in the timeslot. In comparison, NBC’s ‘Grimm’ had a 1.6 rating and a 5 share, while the CW’s ‘Supernatural’ had a 0.7 rating and a 2 share for the same night.

What do all of these numbers mean? Rating is the estimated percentage of TV households watching a show in the average minute; ratings are the potential audience, the possible viewers. Share is the percent of TVs in use. For example, pretend we are in a town with 5000 TV households. The total of people watching TV Show A is 1550. The rating for TV Show A is 31 (1550/5000). Since only 3750 TVs are in use while TV Show A is on the air, the share for TV Show A is 41 (1550/3750). Although ratings and shares are percentages, the percent sign is not used. Sometimes a show will be reported as having a “6/18” overnight result. This means the rating is 6 and the share is 18; the rating is always listed first.

For ‘Fringe,’ a 1.1/3 is not good. Friday is traditionally a night not many watch TV live. When the Live+7 DVR playback numbers are included, ‘Fringe’ improves, increasing its numbers by 40-63%. The show’s ability to increase dramatically with the help of DVR playback helped get it renewed for Season 4, but it might not be enough to get a Season 5. Also helping the show get a fourth season was Warner Bros. TV, who produces the show, willingness to cut its licensing fee, making the show cheaper for FOX. WBTV has syndication as a goal, but I doubt WBTV will cut its fees again. DVD and Blu-Ray sales help the financials, but those numbers don’t really factor into a show’s chance of getting renewed.

Why? Because advertising dollars make the TV world go round. Advertisers don’t care about DVR numbers or DVD/Blu-ray sales because their commercials aren’t being watched. Few live eyes during the commercials means networks cannot ask for a lot of money from advertisers. Without money from advertisers, networks lose money. TV is a business. A show without a solid profit margin is likely to get cancelled even if the numbers are decent. Syfy’s ‘Eureka’ is a prime example of a show with decent numbers getting cancelled because the profit margin was too low.

So a 1.1/3 for ‘Fringe’ is not good because not enough people are watching the show live. The timeslot has become rougher for the show because it’s competing against ‘Grimm’ and ‘Supernatural.’ If more people watch the show live, then FOX will consider keeping the show. FOX is unlikely to cancel the show outright; the network will probably let the show finish the season, so there is time for the show to improve.

‘Fringe’ can be saved. Please watch the show live. If you DVR the show, please watch it on Friday. Overnight ratings include Live+SD, which is live viewing plus same-day DVR viewing, so if the overnights improve for ‘Fringe,’ then we have a great chance of getting a fifth season.

‘Fringe’ returns January 13, 2012 on FOX.

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  • Shane Michael Coffey

    Yea, they forget to count the number of people who watch the show “on demand” or on Fox’s website.  Then you have the people who torrent the show.  Add all those in there and you probably have the highest rated show on tv.  Damn Nielsen families, start liking scifi! 

    • http://michelleealey.blogspot.com/ Michelle Ealey

      While many watch the show online and on demand, advertisers aren’t impressed by those numbers; in fact, advertisers despise online and on demand. It’s all about the advertising dollars, so live eyes are needed to keep any network show on the air. 

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KSZ4WELD2K5GQDMV2X5JJIEF4E DRL

    I agree the show is being watched in larger numbers than official Nielsens. which have been the bane of scifi TV since the measurement was invented. Improvements have been made to data gathering but wish the monetization could be better revealed!

    • http://michelleealey.blogspot.com/ Michelle Ealey

      Nielsen isn’t perfect, but the industry relies on the system because there’s not another reliable option available. One of my biggest complaints about the system is that it doesn’t measure large parties like bar or when people have guest over for a viewing party. 

      I think the number of viewers is higher, but not by much. Not enough people are watching it live.

  • LikeFringeButItsGoingDown

    I think the biggest Problem with this season was Peter disappearing. Noone is connected to each other anymore in this timeline and everything feels somehow cold. Basically, its a totally new show with somehow familliar characters but much less attractive than e.g. the third season. My guess: the only chance is Peter heading back fast to the old timeline.

    • http://michelleealey.blogspot.com/ Michelle Ealey

      The writers took a risk, and I respect them for that. Not many shows would try such an experiment.

      The previews for the show in January show Peter going to the other universe to ask Walternate for help, so I think he’s going to try to go back home.

  • http://www.EquineAddicts.com JanH

    If these darn shows would stop having short seasons and then being gone for a two month winter break, maybe they’d have a more loyal following.  I’ve almost completely given up on TV series because of this and the sudden cancellations leaving a storyline hanging forevermore.

    • http://michelleealey.blogspot.com/ Michelle Ealey

      I understand your frustration. Having a show get canceled is like someone coming up to you when you’re reading a book and tearing the book in half, taking the part you haven’t read with him. Unfortunately, networks have to compete with cable, and the networks have been using a modified cable model for the past couple of years with decent results. Networks don’t have duel revenue streams like basic cable does (ads + subscriptions), so they will try almost anything to keep viewers. Enough viewers complained about the new show/repeat/new show pattern, which is why networks have mid-season finales now.

  • Allrock

    Hope the #’s pick up for Fringe. Been lookin for a show to replace another fav of mine,X-Files. Found it in Fringe,but for how much longer? Oh well, @ least I have it on DVD. Good Luck to ‘Fringe’.